Raila's Nine Lives in Politics
- Editorial
- Mar 17
- 4 min read
By Violet Akinyi.
Few political figures in Kenya’s history have displayed the resilience, adaptability, and strategic cunning of Raila Odinga. Despite multiple attempts at clinching the presidency, Raila has consistently found a way to remain at the centre of power, securing a seat at the high government table even after losing elections.
His ability to navigate the treacherous waters of Kenyan politics, striking deals that benefit both him and his loyalists, has made him a polarizing figure—revered by some and resented by others.
His influence after every electoral loss has often led to deep-seated tensions within the ruling government.
The history of Kenya’s recent administrations suggests a recurring trend: whenever Raila is absorbed into government, cracks emerge at the highest levels of leadership. This pattern has played out before, raising the question—does Raila’s presence in government weaken the bond between the president and deputy president, or is it merely an excuse for pre-existing rifts?
In 2008, following the highly contested presidential election, Kenya plunged into post-election violence that left over a thousand people dead and hundreds of thousands displaced. The country was on the brink of collapse when international mediators, led by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, brokered a power-sharing deal between President Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga.
This arrangement birthed the Grand Coalition Government, with Raila assuming the role of Prime Minister—an unprecedented move that saw him wield substantial power despite officially losing the election. While the coalition government brought temporary stability, it was fraught with internal conflicts. Raila and Kibaki’s uneasy co-existence was marked by power struggles, public disagreements, and constant battles over government appointments.
This discord trickled down to their respective camps, creating a divided government that struggled to function cohesively.
Fast forward to 2017, Kenya witnessed another high-stakes election where Raila Odinga, running against President Uhuru Kenyatta, refused to concede defeat. His push for electoral justice led to the annulment of the presidential results by the Supreme Court—an unprecedented ruling in Africa.
However, after boycotting the re-run election, Raila found himself in political limbo. In March 2018, in a move that shocked both his supporters and critics, Raila extended an olive branch to Uhuru Kenyatta. The now-famous “Handshake” marked the beginning of a new political alliance that saw Raila gain significant influence in government. His loyalists were appointed to key government positions, and his political adversaries found themselves sidelined.
The ‘Handshake’ fundamentally altered Kenya’s political landscape, but it came at a cost. Deputy President William Ruto, who had been Uhuru’s right-hand man, suddenly found himself isolated. The once-strong alliance between the President and his Deputy began deteriorating as Raila’s presence in government grew.
What followed was a public fallout between Uhuru and Ruto, leading to Ruto’s eventual departure from the ruling Jubilee Party and the formation of his political outfit, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA). The ripple effect of Raila’s new position was undeniable—his entry into government came with a shift in alliances, and as history has shown, this often led to unintended casualties.
The 2022 general elections saw a new face-off: Raila Odinga, backed by the incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta, against William Ruto, who had styled himself as the champion of the ‘hustler’ movement.
Despite government backing, Raila lost to Ruto, marking yet another failed presidential bid. But in a move that has become all too familiar in Kenya’s political circles, speculation is rife that Raila may once again find his way into government. President Ruto’s administration is already facing significant challenges, and history suggests that a deal with Raila could be on the horizon—either to neutralize the opposition or to bring about political stability. If this happens, what will be the cost?
From Broad-Based Government to Bread-Based Government?
A striking pattern in Kenya’s political landscape is the way Raila’s entry into government coincides with the deterioration of relationships between the president and his deputy. When he joined Kibaki’s government in 2008, the coalition was marked by frequent tensions. In 2018, his handshake with Uhuru sidelined Ruto, causing a major fallout that ultimately led to Ruto’s exit.
Now, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua suffered the same fate as Ruto did under Uhuru. The entry of Raila into government has historically altered the balance of power, with those in leadership having to accommodate his interests at the expense of others.
To understand Raila’s political manoeuvres, one must examine his broader objectives. Having been in politics for decades, Raila has mastered the art of reinvention.
His strategic moves ensure that he remains a central figure in Kenya’s political discourse, even without winning the presidency. Many believe he plays the long game, using alliances to position himself for future political battles.
His partnerships with past presidents have always served to either secure key government appointments or lay the groundwork for his next move. Even when not in power, he ensures that he has the power to influence.
His ability to mobilize the masses and shake governments makes him a figure that even sitting presidents cannot ignore.
While Raila’s presence in government has often brought about short-term stability, it has also introduced new fault lines. The sidelining of deputies and the internal divisions within ruling parties create governance challenges that affect service delivery and policy implementation.
Furthermore, his alliances with different administrations have led to broken promises and disillusionment among his supporters, who often feel shortchanged after years of loyalty. The biggest question now is whether history will repeat itself. If Raila joins the government, will it signal the beginning of a strained relationship between Ruto and Kindiki? And if so, what will this mean for Kenya’s political stability?
Kenya’s political future remains uncertain, but one thing is clear—Raila Odinga is unlikely to disappear from the scene. Whether he finds his way into Ruto’s government or continues leading the opposition, his influence will be felt. As the grandmaster of political survival prepares his next move, the nation watches with bated breath, knowing that the Raila factor is never to be underestimated.
Despite the challenges and controversies surrounding his political alliances, Raila’s ability to stay relevant is undeniable. His knack for reading the political atmosphere and forging partnerships even with those he has previously clashed with speaks to his strategic genius. Raila's political maneuvers often bring both short-term stability and long-term implications, which keeps the political scene in Kenya constantly evolving. Whether he continues to challenge the status quo or shifts his approach entirely, one thing remains clear: Raila’s influence will continue to shape Kenya’s future, and his next move will likely have profound effects on the nation’s governance and political alliances.
Raila Odinga’s political career truly seems like a masterclass in adaptability and resilience. His ability to navigate Kenya's shifting political landscape, even after several presidential defeats, is impressive. It's almost as if his political journey is a carefully calculated project each alliance and move designed to maintain influence and position himself for the future. While some may criticize his role in causing divisions, it's clear that Raila understands the long game, making him an indispensable figure in Kenya’s politics. It will be interesting to see how his next move unfolds and whether he’ll once again reshape the political environment.